Financial crisis could make for a closer Senate race

Financial crisis could make for a closer Senate race
The issue has favored Democrats, but whether it will harm Susan Collins is unclear.
By TOM BELL
Staff Writer Portland Press Herald

Since he began running for the U.S. Senate 17 months ago, Democratic Rep. Tom Allen hasn't been able to get close enough in the polls to seriously threaten the Republican incumbent, Susan Collins.

But with just over four weeks to go before Election Day, the campaign is being transformed by the events on Wall Street and in Washington, D.C.

The implosion of the nation's financial sector has given Allen an opportunity to redefine Maine's U.S. Senate race around the economy, an issue that nationally is benefiting Democrats, according to political observers and campaign operatives.

Whether Allen can make up the double-digit gap that polls suggest separates him and Collins remains to be seen. In fact, experts believe Collins has so far effectively blunted attempts by Allen to blame the economic crisis on Bush administration policies that Collins supports.

The financial crisis, though, appears to be helping the Democrat at the top of the ticket, Barack Obama, and further damaging Bush's popularity. That could make Collins vulnerable because she has voted with Bush on some big issues, such as the Iraq war and tax cuts for the wealthy, said Patrick Murphy, president of Pan Atlantic SMS, a Portland market research company.

"People are angry," he said. "It creates an opening for Tom."

Recent national polls of likely voters indicate Obama has taken a 5- to 9-point lead over Republican nominee John McCain.

Moreover, 66 percent of Americans now disapprove of President Bush's handling of the economy, according to a recent CBS/New York Times poll. That's a new low for the president.

Until recently, Collins had been running commercials highlighting her constituent service. But she changed tactics last week and took on the Wall Street crisis.

In an ad aimed at tempering the impact of Allen's new commercial, Collins is shown telling supporters about her position on the $700 billion bailout bill that the Senate passed Wednesday. The narrator says, "It's a time for bipartisanship. America faces a grave threat to our financial system."

Roy Lenardson, a Republican strategist, said the economic crisis will only strengthen Collins' position because most Maine voters see her as a moderate who can work across party lines.

"In the middle is where things get done," he said. "The only way to fix things is working together."

Indeed, Collins' ability to distance herself from Bush may prove helpful to another candidate trying to do the same thing – John McCain.

The McCain campaign is ramping up efforts in Maine, one of only two states that splits its electoral votes. A CNN report notes that Collins has a big lead and a strong organization.

What makes this race different from others, said Collins spokesman Kevin Kelley, is that while both Allen and Collins have been in Congress for 12 years, she is the only one who has built a solid reputation for working with both parties to get the job done.

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