A Little Comment(ary)...

Too scared to check 401(k)? Join the club
By BILL NEMITZ
Portland Press Herald

My dear 401(k),

I know, I know, it's been a while since I checked in to see how you're doing. And I know this is not how I'd normally do that.

But there's a reason I haven't logged onto Fidelity Investments' www.401k.com and hit that "Year-to-Date Change" link that shows me how much you, my little nest egg, have grown since Jan. 1.

It's because I'm scared to look. I know you're not well. I'm pretty sure you're hemorrhaging back there while the financial markets try Band Aids, then tourniquets, then full-scale, federally funded life support to keep us from slipping into what President Bush this week called a looming "financial panic" across the nation.

Now lately, I admit, I haven't much cared what our lame-duck president has to say about anything. But after watching Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac, AIG, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and now Washington Mutual all go belly up, I'm afraid he might be on to something.

And it's only going to get worse now that the financial meltdown has oh-so-predictably spilled over into election-year politics. (John McCain to the rescue? Gimme a break.)

But I digress. The reason I'm writing you now, beloved 401(k), is to assure you that my lack of attention doesn't mean I no longer care how you're doing.

Actually, I care a lot. All these years I've been funneling my hard-earned money into you, I've kept faith that you'd be there when I need you come 2019, when I'm eligible (or so I thought) to retire.

I've done all the things the financial experts told me to do.

I've completed those gut-wrenching questionnaires, more than once, to assess my tolerance (gulp) for risk.

I even paid an independent adviser to hold my goals up against the 38 investment options offered to me by Fidelity and tell me where to diversify and by how much. (If only I'd put more in bonds.)

But that was then -- and this is now. Much as I'd like to click on that year-to-date link and check your pulse, those same experts tell me it's so dark on Wall Street right now that I'd best leave you alone until the skies clear a bit.

They say that to fixate on you now, let alone start pushing the "Change Investments" button in search of a safer harbor, would not be prudent. They say that, in a storm this nasty, you stick with the boat you're in rather than jump overboard in search of something sturdier.

I know, metaphors are cheap. But even that crazy Jim Cramer on CNBC knows it's a lot easier to talk about "meltdowns" and "stormy seas" these days than to face the bitter realities of "asset classes" and "volatility measures." (Try as I might, I just can't stomach another "quarter-end average total annual return" at a time like this.)

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=212673&ac=PHnws

Is Palin fit? It's a little unclear
By BILL NEMITZ
Portland Press Herald

It felt like Mission Impossible: Find a fellow Mainer or two, preferably women, who still think Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is fit to be a heartbeat away from the presidency and well, explain it to me.

Now, I admit I'm a very tough sell. I've watched Palin's interviews with Charlie Gibson, Sean Hannity and Katie Couric and come away shocked and awed not by her spunky charisma, but her stunning ignorance of the world she could someday be called upon to lead.

Hence it was with more than a little skepticism Monday that I called state Rep. Meredith Strang Burgess, R-Cumberland.

I wanted to know if Strang Burgess, who co-chairs Maine Women for McCain, has changed her view since saying in a news release four weeks ago that Republican presidential nominee John McCain will benefit from having "a committed reformer like Palin at his side."

Not in the least, Strang Burgess replied.

In fact, she said, "I'm sure she'll do just fine," starting with Thursday's debate against Democratic vice-presidential candidate Sen. Joe Biden.

Strang Burgess said she did not see Palin's interview late last week with CBS' Couric. So I read her an excerpt from Palin's comments about having Russia as a neighbor to her native Alaska:

"We have trade missions back and forth. We – we do – it's very important when you consider even national security issues with Russia as Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where do they go? It's Alaska. It's just right over the border. It is from Alaska that we send those out to make sure that an eye is being kept on this very powerful nation, Russia, because they are right there, they are right next to our state."

Now I've read that quote at least a dozen times. I've replayed the video a half-dozen. And for the life of me, I have absolutely no idea what Palin was talking about.

Not so for Strang Burgess.

Palin was talking about the need to keep track of what Russia is doing, she said, and the fact that "there is more understanding (of Russia) up there (in Alaska) because of the proximity."

Strang Burgess went on to note that Maine has its own military presence at the (soon-to-be-closed) Brunswick Naval Air Station – although I'm still not sure what that has to do with Alaska, Palin and the omnipresent Vladimir Putin.

Strang Burgess, mind you, isn't the only Maine woman who's sticking with Palin come hell or low expectations.

Later Monday, I got a call from former state Sen. Betty Lou Mitchell, R-Etna, who said she'd heard about my quest for understanding and would be happy to help.

Palin, Mitchell said, "is like John McCain – she's a straight talker."

Uh-huh. And did Mitchell see the Couric interview?

"I did not," she replied.

Allow me to share another Palin excerpt, this one on the $700 billion mortgage bailout legislation now stalled in Congress:

"Every American I'm speaking with, we're ill about this position that we have been put in where it is the taxpayers looking to bail out. But ultimately what the bailout does is help those who are concerned about the health care reform that is needed to help shore up our economy, helping the, oh, it's got to be all about job creation to shoring up our economy and putting it back on the right track.

"So health care reform and reducing taxes and reining in spending has got to accompany tax reduction and tax relief for Americans. And trade, we've got to see trade as opportunity, not as a competitive, scary thing, but one in five jobs being created in the trade sector today. We've got to look at that as more opportunity, all these things under the umbrella of job creation, this bailout is a part of that."

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=212981&ac=PHnws

Time to have that sex talk – on camera
By BILL NEMITZ
Portland Press Herald

There are two possible explanations for Portland Mayor Ed Suslovic's recent decision to sit down in the mayor's office at City Hall and, with a camera rolling, talk about sex.

The first?

"You know me, I can't help myself," Suslovic said with a loud chuckle Wednesday. "I guess I just have no political instincts whatsoever."

The second?

"It's so important that we get over ourselves and sit down and talk to our kids" about sex, Suslovic said.

Hizzzoner is one of a handful of high-profile adults who in recent weeks have sat down to chat on camera with organizers of "Real Life. Real Talk."

Initiated last year by Planned Parenthood of Northern New England and supported by a coalition of more than 30 area businesses, schools and social service organizations, the project's goal is to spur a community-wide conversation on how better to prepare today's adolescents for the pressures, pitfalls and yes, even the pleasures of sexual activity.

The latest strategy is to persuade as many people as possible, especially parents, to answer a painfully simple question: What do you wish someone had told you about sex?

"I've gotten the sense that people appreciate being asked the question," said Lauren Grousd, director of "Real Life. Real Talk." "Asking people to talk about that – it's an instant connector. We can all relate to the things people are saying."

At the same time, Grousd said, we can start doing for our children what we wish had been done for us – discuss sex openly, honestly and regularly with them rather than sit down once for "The Talk" and leave the rest to chance.

Suslovic, brave man, said he agreed to do the interview because he looks back on his own Roman Catholic upbringing and remembers only two times an adult spoke with him about sex.

One was a less-than-comfortable chat with his father. The other was a science class in which a male teacher explained "the mechanics" of sexual reproduction, he said, minus any "context into which we could put that information."

The result?

"I look back and think I made some really shaky decisions," Suslovic said. "And I'm really lucky those decisions didn't have major, negative long-term consequences for me or my partner."

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=213366&ac=PHnws

We have met the enemy and he looks familiar...
There's plenty of blame to go around for the crisis in the economy -- and we're guilty, too.
By TERRY DAVIES
Portland Press Herald

Terry Davies lives in Falmouth with his wife, two boys and a black lab named Cash. During the day he is a portfolio manager with IMCG in Portland. He can be reached at tdavies@imcgrp.com.

When President Bush introduced the Wall Street subsidy last Friday, he said that it was not the time for assigning blame. The public has had a week to ponder the implications of the starting price of $700 billion and other uses for the money. We can either bail out Goldman Sachs or we can: repair every single bridge and road in our neglected infrastructure: fund Social Security; fund Medicare; improve public education; insure everyone's retirement and make alternative energy a reality. The next day we could provide healthcare for every single American and get a new knee for Tom Brady.

Something has to be done to address the financial crisis. We have been pressured to accept the Paulson plan immediately as if it were the only possible option when a better approach has already been used. In 1992, the banking system in Sweden collapsed under a pile of bad loans caused by a real estate bubble. The government stepped in, but not right away and they did not use the Paulson approach of buying the bad loans from the banks at inflated prices. Instead, the banks were forced to write down all of their losses before they got a dime of public money. When they received funds, it was in exchange for equity in the banks -- so the public could participate in the return, not just shoulder the risk. They used capitalism. Like we did with AIG and Fannie Mae.

The largest bank, SEB, decided to fix its own balance sheet and turned a profit in 1993. Sweden is not a paragon of capitalism, but their banking bailout wound up costing very little. As a 26-year veteran of investing and trading, including 20 years with a large firm in New York City, I am a big believer in the free market and have a major issue with the government operating the financial sector. But I am also a big fan of what works. I trust reality over opinion. I also trust incentive-based compensation over a free handout. Why does Warren Buffett's lousy $5 billion get him a big piece of Goldman when our $700 billion gets us toxic waste?

We could start by blaming the government for this, since they are paid to watch out for us. Which they might have done, except for the deregulation binge that started under Reagan, continued through Bush I and Clinton and is carried on today by Bush II. This rush to deregulate gutted the SEC, abolished the Glass-Steagal Act and led to this mess. (Google away -- it is all there.) So it is their fault -- those Republican/Democratic administrations. Except that we Americans believe in less regulation, small government and free markets, don't we? The bad guys must be all those Wall Street types. We trust them with the keys and they drive the global economy into a ditch. Except, as noted above, we like our markets free and Wall Street exists to maximize profit. So it has to be sub-prime mortgages at the bottom of all this. But mortgages, sub-prime or otherwise, work out just fine as long as the borrower pays back the loan. Which would put the blame back on ... hang on, I don't like the way this is headed. Let's start over. How did we get here?

• Step one -- the housing bubble. In 1938, Fannie Mae was started to create a secondary market for mortgages so lower-income Americans could buy a house. In 1968, Fannie Mae was privatized, issued stock, and became a private corporation gambling public funds. Over the next 40 years, what was meant to be a small, special-purpose agency grew to control 50 percent of the U.S. mortgage market and issue roughly $2 trillion in debt. All that money was loaned to homebuyers, artificially pushing home prices higher. It became gospel that houses only went up in value, they didn't depreciate like other assets, so stretching to buy as much house as was possible was darned smart.

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=212416&ac=Insight

Same game with old flame
BY J.P. DEVINE
Freelance Writer Morning Sentinel

It just sits there in the far corner. It is older than I am. I'm guessing it was installed about the time Eisenhower died, or perhaps longer ago, perhaps when Trotsky was murdered in Mexico or when Bonnie and Clyde were gunned down on that dusty road down in Bienville Parish.

Yes, that kind of old.

It is my ancient boiler, my aging furnace, my friend who has, so far, not let me down. I pet it and feed it much as I do my dog , except it consumes more and at a higher price.

Ahhh. It just went on with a rumble, and I can see the flame in its belly like a smile, a comforting smile like one from someone I know and trust.

I hope it understands that without its rumble, the end would come soon. We could, I guess, get a new one. It would save us money, they say. "You'll see the difference in five years." In five years I'll be lucky to see the stairs. What difference will it make in five years?

She waits upstairs for the heat to climb. Winter evenings with her is like dining with one of the Sherpas at Edmund Hillary's base camp. Cold is her natural condition. She has a master's degree in evening layering. Sometimes, if one focuses, one can actually see her curly hair popping up out from under the big robe and the L.L. Bean fleece vest.

She could be warmer if only she kept the thermostat at a decent number, but that's not going to happen. She has the rigid frugality of the ancient French. This new thermostat, a digital one, has never seen 70. And only once, to my recollection, has it seen 65, and that was when it was 20 below in the garden.

Yes, this is an October column, and it will probably be the last one I write without those little gloves with the fingers cut out. Sometimes I turn it a bit higher when she is away and then quickly turn it down when I hear her at the door. I know she will touch the baseboards upon entering to check on me.

Someone once told me that Alcatraz prison had more lenient rules ... and it was warmer.

There are times when, in the course of an evening, she nods off in her reading chair. I move quickly to turn the heat up a notch. This is rarely successful, as there are three things that will awaken her from the dead: the opening of the fridge door, the popping of the wine cork from the second bottle and the furnace clicking on.

http://morningsentinel.mainetoday.com/news/local/5468321.html

Is this vote on a casino, or Bailey?
By BILL NEMITZ
Portland Press Herald

Her job is tough enough: to convince voters that yet another proposed casino would be (ahem) good for Maine's economy. But now Pat LaMarche, the latest local mouthpiece for the boys from Las Vegas, has another problem.

She can't get Dennis Bailey out of her head.

"Hearing there's another casino referendum must be happy news in (Bailey's) house," LaMarche said Monday.

She was explaining a radio ad, put out last week by Vote Yes on 2 for Maine!, which spends half of its 60 seconds attacking "The No People."

The ad calls Bailey a "hired gun" for Casinos No! who "has been paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to scare you into voting against good-paying jobs and millions in new revenue for Maine."

The ad goes on to target "the owners of one of Maine's best-known companies and their extended family" – that would be L.L. Bean and its chairman, Leon Gorman – for helping to bankroll Bailey.

Now, that's really smart.

Rather than focus relentlessly on their claim, however dubious, that a casino is the solution to Oxford County's economic woes, LaMarche & Co. are fast turning Question 2 into a referendum on Dennis Bailey.

And rather than try to portray Olympia Group as a friendly newcomer to Maine's corporate citizenry, they thumb their nose at none other than the venerable L.L. Bean.

Can we say "off message"?

Contacted Monday, Bailey could only chuckle at his newfound status as leader of "The No People."

"I'm leading the campaign, but I think Maine voters are the ones who turned these things down" in the past, he said. "(LaMarche) is giving me a lot more credit and power than I deserve."

He might be too modest. The latest addition to the Casinos No! Web site is "The Daily Pat Down," in which Bailey chronicles LaMarche's tactical and factual missteps.

The latest: her statement last week to The Associated Press that she wishes she had "a gallon of Wite-Out" to fix the many flaws in the casino bill. (Really? Then why vote for it?)

The bottom line is that Bailey, intentionally or not, has managed to divert LaMarche's attention from her pro-casino talking points – shaky as they may be – and onto him.

Thus, with the vote just 28 days away, the debate is focused not on who says what, but how much they get paid to say it.

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=214512&ac=PHnws

A site for sore taxpayers
By BILL NEMITZ
Portland Press Herald

Go ahead and admit it. After all the blather about Barack Obama's and John McCain's competing tax plans, you still have no real idea how either would affect you.

Now go to a computer. Jeff Gramlich and Chris Houle, bless them, are ready to help.

Gramlich is an accounting professor at the University of Southern Maine. Houle is the CEO of Quantrix, a business software company in Portland.

Together, they recently launched www.Election-Taxes.com -- a free, one-of-a-kind tool that can tell you, right down to the dollar, how you'd fare under each candidate's tax proposal.

"The goal, from my perspective, is to have a meaningful and respected impact on the election," said Gramlich.

"We've tried to take a totally nonpartisan approach," added Houle. "It underpins the credibility of what we've done."

It all began in August, when the two friends started brainstorming about how they might take a pile of tax-policy research that Gramlich had just completed and make it useful for the average citizen.

The result: A 17-question survey (no name required) that plugs figures from your most recent tax return into the Obama plan, the McCain plan and even the current tax formula. Then, with the click of a mouse, you see how much each would cost you over the next four years.

How useful is that?

"I thought we'd have hit a home run if we got 100,000 (Web hits)," Gramlich said. "And we doubled that within a day."

Now the hit count is more than 300,000 and climbing by thousands per day. And Gramlich and Houle find themselves fielding media calls from as far away as Denver and California.

Gramlich said the model generally confirms what's being said out on the campaign trail: The lower your income, the better you'll likely do with Obama; the more you make, the better you fare with McCain.

That said, there are anomalies, which is why Gramlich refrains from talking about the "average taxpayer" and instead urges people to log on and see for themselves.

"We all have our unique characteristics and none of us wants to be thought of as 'average,' " Gramlich said. "This allows people to look at it from their own perspective."

And, if they're so inclined, to comment. Gramlich and Houle are amazed at the depth and emotion of the 1,900-plus comments that have been posted on the site -- including one that correctly noted a flaw in one tax bracket regarding capital gains and qualified dividends. (They immediately fixed it.)

There are assumptions -- 28 in all -- built into the model. Things like a projected 3 percent annual inflation rate over the next four years, the exclusion of the candidates' health care proposals and, of course, politics.

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=214822&ac=PHnws

Another generation watches tables turn
BY J.P. DEVINE
Freelance Writer Morning Sentinel

Each evening, about 6 o'clock, my mother would stand at the kitchen stove, serving supper. She would put one piece of chicken, meat loaf or fish on a plate and hand it to Rita, who handed it off to Eileen, who handed it over to Kenny, who gave it to Bud, who passed it around to Jim, who placed it in front of my father.

This ritual went on until all five boys and three girls and my mother had food before them. It was like a scene from an actor's boarding house that was played out in the kitchens of millions of homes in America.

It was the era of Roosevelt. America was climbing out of the gutter and then, as now, the kitchen table was the center of our universe. It was, naturally, the warmest room in the house and had the best lighting. Our table was the old round captain's table. It never saw a tablecloth, not even at supper. It was too prone to gravy stains, spilled coffee and, sometimes, tears.

We all did homework at that same table. My mother and father worked out the insurance payments and grocery money there. Charlie Klein proposed to my sister over cups of Folger's Coffee and orange Jell-O at that table. It was there that my mother worked out my father's funeral arrangements as I stood in the doorway, listening, and watched the light go out of her eyes.

We colored Easter eggs there, carved the Halloween pumpkins and put picture puzzles of Frederic Remington's "The Smoke Signal" together on long winter nights. It was at all of our kitchen tables, wooden at first, then Formica and back to wooden, where ideas were born, futures planned and dreams shaped, and where the dream sometimes died.

It was at that table my mother spread out the afternoon Post-Dispatch and scanned the news of the war in the Pacific, where four of her sons floated between life and death.

Now, when the world is lighted by lightning, the kitchen table has returned to sharper focus. It is, in the words of the great Norma Desmond, "ready for its close-up."

http://morningsentinel.mainetoday.com/news/local/5490989.html

Poll workers prepared if history calls
By BILL NEMITZ
Portland Press Herald

Just imagine: It's Nov. 5. Barack Obama has 269 electoral votes – one short of the 270 needed to win the presidency. John McCain has 268 – one short of the 269 needed to tie Obama and throw the election into that black hole we call the U.S. House of Representatives.

And as the sun comes up on West Quoddy Head in Lubec, they're still counting in Maine's 2nd Congressional District.

"Of course it would make me nervous," said Pam Violette, the town clerk in Clinton, where in 2004, George Bush and John Kerry each received 837 votes.

"But I feel confident in the people who work for us," Violette added. Even if northern Maine became to 2008 what Florida was to 2000, she said, "We would be fine."

Some would argue that this election won't be that close: Saturday's Gallup daily tracking poll had Obama ahead in the presidential race by 9 percentage points. Still, with three long weeks to go, anything can happen.

That is why the McCain campaign sent Todd Palin, the "first dude" of Alaska, to Palmyra and Presque Isle this weekend in an attempt to peel off one of Maine's four electoral votes for the Republican ticket. (Maine is one of only two states that splits its electoral votes: The overall winner statewide gets two, while the winner in each congressional district gets one.)

The McCain rationale: Every electoral vote still counts. And Maine's 2nd District has shown enough Republican support in the past two presidential elections – Bush lost by just under 6 percent in 2004 and only 2 percent back in 2000 – to make it worth the effort.

So back to our what if. Could northern Maine become ground zero in this historic presidential election? And if they suddenly found themselves face to face with competing armies of BlackBerry-toting lawyers and political operatives, how would all those small-town clerks and ballot counters hold up?

"I think admirably," said Maine Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap. "And I'll tell you why."

First, he said, Maine uses written, paper ballots – not those chad-hanging punch cards that caused so much trouble in Florida eight years ago. Ours may be lower-tech, but they leave much less to chance when it comes to counting and recounting and, when necessary, trying to determine an individual voter's intent.

Second, Dunlap continued, Maine implemented a central voter registration system in 2002 that funnels registrations from more than 500 municipalities into one database. That greatly reduces the risk of voter fraud or confusion about who is lawfully registered where.

Finally, Dunlap fully agrees with Clinton's Violette that Maine's "extremely committed" election workers are very good at getting it right – no matter how close the outcome.

That's a good thing, because Clinton isn't the only 2nd District town that tied in 2004. Bush and Kerry also received identical votes in Waldo (205-205), Brighton Plantation (25-25) and Stow (90-90).

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=215438&ac=PHnws

Here's your chance to fill in the blanks
By JEANNINE GUTTMAN
Portland Press Herald

Do you have a question you'd like to ask Democrat Tom Allen or Republican Susan Collins, the two people running for Maine's U.S. Senate seat?

As a resident of Maine, is there a particular issue you'd like to hear both candidates address before casting your ballot on Nov. 4?

We're hoping the answer to both questions is "yes." In fact, we designed our upcoming U.S. Senate debate with voters' voices in mind.

Tuesday is your chance to pose questions to Allen and Collins at a noontime debate hosted by media partners WMTW Channel 8, this newspaper and our two sister Blethen Maine Newspapers.

Here's how to get your voice heard:

You can attend the Tuesday debate at noon at the University of Southern Maine's Hannaford Lecture Hall and submit a question in writing to the candidates. Or you can submit a question via e-mail starting Monday by going to www.pressherald.com. On Tuesday, if you cannot attend the debate in person, you can watch it unfold live on Channel 8 or via the Channel 8 Web site.

Our newspaper Web site, pressherald.com, will have a link to the Channel 8 video feed.

We'll replicate this format in two weeks with the 1st congressional district debate on Oct. 28, featuring Democrat Chellie Pingree and Republican Charlie Summers.

I asked Andrew Russell, our assistant managing editor for news, to talk about the scope and mission of the debates.

"Maine's Senate race is one of the most closely watched races in the country, and for the first time in 12 years we have an open seat in the 1st Congressional District.

"As the state's largest media outlet, we believe it's important to help lead the debate and the discussion on the biggest issues of the day," Russell said. "Right now, nothing is bigger than the election, and with the problems in the economy taking center stage, voters have a lot to sort through before making their choices on Nov. 4.

"Hopefully these debates will make it easier for voters to make those choices by giving them deeper insight into the candidates and their positions."

Said Channel 8 News Director George Matz: "We are proud to be teaming up with the Portland Press-Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram to bring viewers and Web users this truly interactive debate. We expect to have some very unique and informative questions" posed to the two candidates.

The goal, said Matz, is for the debate to "go beyond the sound bites and political commercials so that viewers and Web users can get a more accurate viewpoint on what each candidate brings to the table."

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=215169&ac=Insight